And in the UK.
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I wasnāt going to comment on this, but screw it. I am already connected with 2 people who have died from this - one a good friend of a relative who was a doctor working in the Philippines earlier in the week, and my auntās sister who died last night in the UK.
This is not flu, itās far more serious and at least an order of magnitude more deadly. There is no inherent immunity for this unlike the various strains of flu. That gives it the potential to spread extremely quickly throughout the population and given that somewhere between 10-20% of cases are serious enough to warrant hospitalisation, hospitals will become overwhelmed in short order and the fatality rate will rapidly increase.
The health risk is not minuscule, itās potentially disastrous. Please take it seriously.
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I understand your personal concern. That said there are far more people killed by influenza and vehicles than covid19. Perhaps this will change in the future. Until then Iām more concerned by the 2 friends Iāve lost in addition to my wifeās mother and father to influenza. Influenza seems to be more fatal than any other cause of death.
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I am sorry for your loss.
But thatās not the way math works. If we test all 330 million of us, then you would be correct. But they havenāt.
So hereās the math for the US:
Using data from Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center COVID-19 Map - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center
(as of 3/29/2020, 4:56 pm)
137,294 confirmed cases in the US resulting in 2,414 deaths. Thatās a mortality rate of 1.76%. If, as you say, itās only as deadly as the Swine Flu (H3N2 variant), then 20% of the country will get the Coronavirus. Infecting 66 million people in the US. (Swine Flu infected 61 million people with a mortality rate of 0.02%ā¦this is pushing 100 times more deadly). With a mortality rate of 1.76%, thatās 1,160,000 people who will die. If 40% get itā¦2.3 million people will die. And so forth.
According to the CDC, the ācommonā flu has an infection rate of between 11.5% to 16.4%. Mortality rate of between 0.06& to 0.11%. So applying that infection rate to the coronavirus, that could result in
between 670,000 and 950,000 deaths. 10 to 40 times the number from the flu. And a vaccine, even though the virus mutates every year, does prevent or lessen the effects from the flu. It will be awhile before a vaccine is available to the world for the coronavirus.
Thatās why you should take this a lot more seriously. And again, until we test a lot more, no one knows what will be the mortality rate or infection rate. We are just in beginning of this in the US. God bless the people in Italy or Spain who are suffering (all over the world who are suffering, including āUSā).
Staying home, shutting down people gathering, will help āflatten the curveā. This will enable hospitals to ramp up and be able to treat people without being overwhelmed and without the necessary PPE and other equipment (like respirators!). The amount of people who get the virus may not necessarily change, but our ability to treat will. Thatās the key. Plus any benefits of āherd immunityā without unnecessary deaths will maybe help bring the mortality rate down. This is not the āfluā and is a lot more deadly. And you are not only risking your life, but everyone you come in contact with and who came in contact with you. I personally would like to see my mother live through this.
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Words cannot express my sorrow for their passing. I can only say Iām sorry.
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I read recently about a new record set, maybe 2,3 weeks backā¦9700 some odd miles beating the previous 9500 mile trip. When is this Austrian flight?
You are mingling infection rates with mortality rates. The entire population will never be tested for any disease - influenza, covid19, etc. That said it isnāt only the elderly that die from these diseases. There have been several Florida children that died this week from influenza. More than covid19.
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OMG, it would be so funny to put this on a social media threadā¦see who bitesā¦tee hee
I canāt do that because i donāt do social media. i donāt facebook, tweet, gram or otherwise.
Truly liberatingā¦But i feel sure there would be enough āless than intelligentā folks who would actually believe theyāre being sprayed.
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Sorry for using FR, itās in the air at the moment:
Thank you kindly. You are appreciated.
Iām not feeding the troll any more.
Aircraft down by 11.7% from Saturday to Sunday
Messages down by 1.6% from Saturday to Sunday
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EasyJet have grounded their entire fleet. BBC News article here.
With fewer and fewer flights in and around airports, here are some new Airport Codes. Can you add to them?
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And in the Spain, Alicante (ALC).
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HMO - Home Office
GIN - Anywhere in the house really
SHA - Amateur radio shack
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London City closing completely hasnāt made a big impact on statistics, but their departure flight path is right over my house so the lack of evening departures is very noticeable.
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Seems there is something not going quite right with the fitting function!
(i think i was the last one to touch that code?!)
Yes it needs revising. Itās It too sensitive to variation in the top part of the curve. The past few days itās been waving about lots.
HMO - PAT
Depending on the weather, i am using my Patio as Home Office
Thanks to mobile working equipment from my employer
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MCV - Man Cave
BBQ - Well, yes. My BBQ
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