Hi, Im the representant of a group called SIZIA and we are working on a project but we have some interrogations. Our project consist in a system that can trace irregularity on commercial flight to predict the arrival time. We project to do an isometric card that can show the sector where the flight change direction and we want to now witch factor is more important: the altitude , the speed, or the emplacement of the plane. Just give a mark on 10 where 1 is the lest important and 10 is the more important on each of these factor:
keep the right speed : /10
keep the right altitude: /10
keep the right geographical position: /10
or if you have some other factor please tell us
**Good lord. Twice in one day that I am agreeing with DamiRoss…I looked around too for what this is about and I am lost. Always want to help students learn, but that might include a grammer lesson on the way.
You guys haven’t been around enough foreigners. Sounds like they are trying to create a matrix that will predict an accurate ETA based on info available on flightaware like services.
Unfortunately, the biggest info is usually not related to the particular flight because its a crowding issue. It would be an interesting trick to see if you could tell from average delays at an airport by comparing flight aware with the schedules.
In order of importance:
1/Traffic delays at departure or destination (often seen as heading away from destination, or high altitude close to destination)
2/Weather (thunderstorms at or near destination, winds)
I think he/she just wants to know which factors are most important in causing variances between an actual arrival time and a “scheduled” one…in a way that’s a little more complex than that. Like canadamooney said, traffic would be near or at the top of the list, along with weather, etc. His/her examples are basically asking how much staying at (or straying from) assigned altitude, airspeed, and projected path will (each)vary your arrival times when compared to the other factors.
First, We are a group of 3 students, in secondary 4 at a Montreal school (in Qubec — Yes we are frenchies ).
Maybe it was to early to talk about our ‘‘Expo-Sciences de Bell 2007’’ project, and we are sorry about that.
Why are we asking you some info ? Just because of math. We need some statistics to build an algorithm that is going to use FlightAware datas to predict the chances for a plane to have to change direction (and then to be late) — Canadamooney was very near from what’s our project.
Sorry for all interrogations that we caused you.
P.S. (Maybe we are gonna try again to reach your cummunity, but until then, we are going to build a web site that’s going to explain our project in details)
P.S.2 : SIZIA is for : ‘Systme Interactif de Surveillance d’Irrgularits Ariennes’
Eh, if you interrogate them enough, the Frenchies will just surrender anyway…sorry, couldn’t resist.
An algorithm to determine the chances of a plane having to turn (divert) due to weather, to me, is a no brainer. If they (said aircraft) is within a certain distance that would tell the pilots that they would be arriving at their destination within +/- X minutes of a squall line passing by, they would obviously divert (no need to wad up a perfectly good aircraft). In fact, wouldn’t just the simple formula from high school physics (distance=rate/time) and a little more math give a pretty close indication if an aircraft would have to divert?
As far as their arguments (in the mathematical sense), just about everything they asked for is all based on weather. Most pilots I know don’t just randomly change the throttle setting in the middle of the flight (climbs in mid-flight excluded). Winds would determine if the speed would be constant more than anything, and that is what we have those handy-dandy E6-Bs for. Altitude typically would only be changed due to winds/turbulance in order to find a “faster” or smoother altitude.
I may be way off, but I don’t really need to an alogrithim to tell me if a flight is going to be diverted. I can look at the TAFs/METARS, etc, then get a good idea from realtime radar if I may be up against the storms and have to divert.
We know that there is a lot of factors thats can influence a flight. Maybe we’re not pilots, but we think that the human factor is one of the most important. That’s why it would be very difficult to predict time of arrival of a plane by looking the natural factors.
So let me explain you one of the base principal of our algorithms.
Let’s take two airports, Atlanta and Nashville. Between these two airports, there is a local storm. Then, a first flight that departs at 8:00, is going to have to climb up, or to gain speed to pass before the storm etc… Then, our ‘sisia’ project is going to know it when this flight will execute his changes, and at each data that we’re going to have on this flight, the system will place a mark on the importance of the change (that’s the part where we need statistics). With these marks, we are able to crate a map that shows places where planes had to change something in their flights. Then a second flight departs at 8:06 from the same airport of the first flight, and it is following a similar path of the first flight but is not necessarily landing at Nashville. So, with our data, we are able to say that the second flight is going to cross a ‘red’ sector for 30 kilometers, where a lot of other planes had to change a bit their path to pass the storm. Then if we are logical, the flight that departs at 8:06 have a lot of chances to change a bit his way like the others, and proportionally to the during of time the plane is going to be in the ‘red’ zone and the intensity of this zone, we are going to try to evaluate a late time for this plane.
In brief, our system is not going to use meteo data and all that stuff to predicts late for a plane, our system is going to use the brief history of a sector, to do the same thing.
Tank you for all your answers!
(I hope our web site is going to be online soon!)
Benoit, ‘sisia project’
P.S. : We already know that it’s different from a plane to the others, that’s why we’re probably going to use only boeing planes.
Just keep in mind that in the case for delays/deviations due to weather, the weather is changing in at least 2 different ways: frontal systems (which cause the most delay and widespread aircraft course deviations) are generally moving ~25-50 mph with the wind and they are also often building and decaying with solar heating over the course of the day.
Just out of curiosity, in addition to aircraft tracks, why not use the NOAA weather radar in your model as it shows near real-time thunderstorm activity which the planes are deviating around? Then your model could predict where things are going as opposed to where they’ve been by looking at past flights.
Couldn’t a change in speed be due to change in winds? Or ATC request for spacing? Or to save fuel since getting there early results in no gate anyway?
Let’s say that a flight from HOU to SAT is heading 30 degrees off course from SAT, is that because he is diverting for a delay, or because he is being vectored for the arrival over the VOR as is normal?