low cost mergers


#1

Do you think any of the low cost airlines will merge if this whole merger frenzy happens? Who do you think will make the best match? I am a fan for a frontier/airtran deal, although the fleet mismatch would be a real issue. I Also think Denver is not a desirable place to have a hub but thats just because I was stuck their for 2 days when a snow storm came through.


#2

I think you will see the low cost carriers expanding when the legacies merge and eliminate capacity. You could see cities open for carriers to expand in.

I think the best merger of the low cost carries may be Jetblue and Frontier with the Airbus commonality and few route overlaps. I am a believer that their will not be many airline mergers between low cost carriers, as they would complicate their business structure.

Denver is not a fun place from a competitive perspective with UA, F9 AND WN fighting it out., but I think you will see low carriers in all major cities.


#3

I don’t see mergers opening up any territory for LCC’s. Not that they won’t try to muscle their way in while carriers are distracted. I think WN’s entry to PHL shows how distracted an airline can be during a merger and I’m predicting that they will enter MSP and CVG soon.

I predict that something has to happen with JetBlue. They aren’t doing too well financially and they have a bunch of aircraft due that they have nowhere to put. They’re putting themselves in some very high cost situations and flying long transcon flights is not a good business proposition from a fuel or utilization standpoint. Maybe they’ll try to start flights to Europe, but NY-UK is such a congested market I don’t see them making much money there.