Will Boeing go under?


#1

There are many things that are hurting Boeing. Mechanics on strike, delays on the 787 project, problems with the USAF on a tanker project, stiff competition from Airbus, and not to mention… the possibility of layoffs for 800 workers in 2009…could this be a warning sign that trouble is ahead for Boeing? How do you think Boeing will come out of this economic struggle?


#2

IMHO, they’ll struggle, but they’ll come out of it. It will take time.

The issue with the nutplates causing 400 B737s to need repairing and delaying other B737s from delivery, as well as the B787 production line being frozen isn’t going to help things anytime soon…

BL.


#3

Maybe a nail in the coffin for Boeing?


#4

This has happened before, it will happen again.

They will get through this.


#5

I believe this is Boeing’s finest hour, again. Remember 1969 and Bill Allen’s wild gamble on the 747? I’d say it paid off.


#6

Definitely going to get worse before it gets better.

The Nutplate issue that affects the B737s is spread across the entire existing line of commercial aviation products Boeing has in production (the B757 is out of production and IIRC, so is the B717):

Boeing admits additional nutplate problems

Also, because of the 787 being frozen, that severely cripples the B747-8 schedule.

This isn’t looking good…

BL.


#7

I was thinking the exact same… thats why I had to ask the question, there are too many problems with Boeing to make it through alone… but with me saying this… maybe the government bail out Boeing if they file for bankruptsy protection?


#8

I was thinking the exact same… thats why I had to ask the question, there are too many problems with Boeing to make it through alone… but with me saying this… maybe the government will bail out Boeing if they file for bankruptsy protection?


#9

Absolutely not. Think about it. Boeing and the US berated and whined up and down the EU’s back in various lawsuits over there, complaining about France’s and the UK’s interests in EADS/Airbus and claiming that the governments there subsidize everything, giving them an advantage. If Boeing went to the Fed and asked to be bailed out, the same thing would happen in reverse. EADS/Airbus could easily claim that that is a huge subsidy Boeing would get, and have a good, solid ground for it.

Boeing pretty much made their bed when they stated that both companies should be on their own (since they claim they aren’t subsidized)… now they have to lay in it and work their way out of their issues.

BL.


#10

Good point.


#11

Boeing will seek a loan rather than a bailout, a la’ Chrysler under Iacoca. You’ve made some valid points, but they would be moot under that scenario.

Boeing’s complaints about EADS had to do with the fact that many EU nations were substantial stockholders in the company and would take whatever steps they considered necessary to protect their investments, including subsidies and tax deferrals.


#12

Hopefully they won’t see a loan or a bailout. If I recall correctly, Iacoca said in 20/20 hindsight the loan was a bad idea.


#13

Boeing will be 100% fine.

Sure, the 787 is delayed, but look at the order books. They’ll make a ton of money on the thing once it finally flies.

The 747-8 should’ve been scrapped years ago. The market for that aircraft, especially with the A380 already in the air, is virtually nonexistent.


#14

Currently, there are only 18 orders for cargo versions of the 747-8. There are no passenger versions sold yet.

Though it’s not currently selling well (only 18 have been ordered and those are cargo versions), I think the 747-8 will eventually become a good seller.

The standard passenger version is slightly smaller than the A380. More important, however, is that the 747-8 can fly into airports that the A380 cannot fly into. There are also quite a few airlines where the 747-8 would be a logical replacement for the 747-400. These include Japan, with a very large fleet of 747s, British, Korean, and Qantas. Depending on what Delta does with the fleet of Northwest, it would also be a good replacement for the latter’s 747s, especially its 747-200 freighters.


#15

When it flies, yes… but airlines who have ordered this plane won’t be happy when their expected delivery dates slip further and further away. That screws with their plans, business model, infrastructure, the entire works. Case in point: When delays were taken for the A380 and subsequent cancellation of the A380F altogether. Look how many companies had to complain about compensation, let alone run in hordes toward the B777F.

Same in reverse will happen if Boeing doesn’t get their act together. Like I mentioned before, they may want to ask some airlines to cancel and reorder, rather than keep their spot. That way Boeing doesn’t have to pay penalties to the carrier for delays. Yes, it may end up with that carrier losing their spot in order, but that makes a better deal than being late on a product, and not having anything to give in compensation (money, alternate plane, or otherwise) for their smeg up.

Either way, if they don’t get it together, it’s going to give the A350 some real viability for airlines to look at. Delivery dates for the B787 are already pushing back to near when Airbus can deliver that plane.

The 747-8 should’ve been scrapped years ago. The market for that aircraft, especially with the A380 already in the air, is virtually nonexistent.

In the US, maybe, but apparently it is working great overseas. When Dubai really starts to hit its stride, expect to see that bird filled. Their (middle Eastern airlines) B777s are already packed, as are their A340s. The US may get along better with smaller fleets and more flights flown, but over there, and especially with the long distances they have to fly, higher capacity flights on less but larger planes still work and work well.

BL.


#16

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Bo … 7-8_orders says they’ve sold 78 freighters and 28 for pax.


#17

Thanks for the correction.

I see my mistake. The article I was reading on the Boeing site stated the number of aircraft ordered by the launch customers (10 for Cargolux and 8 for Nippon Cargo, both of which ordered additional aircraft after their initial orders). Researching further does confirm 78 freighters and 28 passenger versions .

The order breakdown is:
Passenger
Boeing Business Jet: 8
Lufthansa: 20

Freighters
Atlas Air: 12
Cargolux: 13
Cathy Pacific: 10
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise: 5
Emirites: 10
Guggenheim Aviation Partners: 4
Korean Air: 5
Nippon Cargo: 14
Volga-Dnepr Airlines: 5


#18

They’ve been in a bigger pickle many times in the past.


#19

The cutbacks now start, with Delta cutting back on NWA’s order and opting for the B777-200LR instead:

tinyurl.com/5r45ge

What hurts is that NWA was the launch customer, so PR-wise, that really doesn’t look good in front of the other B787 customers. What is unknown is how many they are cutting back on. The article reports that NWA ordered 18. If they don’t cancel all 18, Boeing would still have to pay a penalty for the delays.

BL.