747-8 Passenger Version...


#1

I was just wondering why hasn’t any airline ordered the passenger version yet?

Are the passenger airlines that operate the -400 waiting for performance data or is it just too soon for them to order the -8?


#2

Personally, I think a lot of airlines are waiting to see performance data from 2 new aircraft before firming up orders for the 748… Obviously, the most anticipated airliner (maybe ever) will be the 787, the 787-300 in particular, as this model will carry up to 350 pax or so. If the Dreamliner lives up to the hype, airlines will adjust their orders accordingly. The A380 is set to fly later this year (or next), so some airlines want to see what the WhaleJet’s economic performance in “the real world” looks like before ordering what will be its main rival. Fuel prices will also play into the mix. If fuel remains as high (or higher) as at present, it would make sense for more airlines to shift some 747 routes to slightly smaller twin jet a/c such as 787, A330, or A350/370 if it ever is made.
There WILL BE orders for the 748; I think the real question to the 'lines that will order them is HOW MANY, and that’s what they’re waiting to find out.


#3

I also think the787 is going to be more popular than the 747-8 in international service due to the demand for more point-to-point service rather than point-to-hub-to-point service.


#4

Don’t tell Airbus and the A380 team that.


#5

Good point. I think most of the 748’s usage will be in the Pacific realm. For some reason (I’m not sure if it’s a capacity issue or what), as airlines began integrating 777s into their fleets, the 747 held onto its Asian routes more than any other. Look at UAL, for example. Do they still fly 744s to Europe? I know they fly to Asia & Hawaii. BA, Virgin, KLM, etc. still fly the 744 to North America, but I have a feeling these are “filling in” until the 787 is delivered. You can already see as many (or more) 777s being used by these airlines for the same routes. I’ll be the first to admit that I’m no expert here, but I see what I see. :wink:


#6

The 787 is turning out to be a popular plane, despite the fact that not a single aircraft of the type has flown. However, the competition between Airbus and Boeing is not the 787 v. A380, it’s the 787 v. A350. Boeing might sell more 787’s as their product seems to have hit a bullseye, but the worldwide demand for aircraft of this type (787/A350) will still cause many customers to buy a lot of A350’s. The primary reason is that Boeing would not be able to build enough of them or if it did, some customers would not receive their orders until 2020, which by then at least a new generation of Boeing will have been made, perhaps, the 797.


#7

Am I right in assuming that if no passenger airlines order the 747-8, that it would spell the end of the 747 line?

Will Fedex and UPS, despite UPS placing an order for the -400F last August? Will both compaines even consider the -8F even tho they have placed orders for the A380F?

The only airlines I see that have ordered the 747-8F are:

Cargolux
Nippon Cargo Airlines

The rest are either for the 747-400F or the-400ERF.


#8

I am very well aware that the competition is 787 vs. A350; what I meant was that the 777 and 787 will “steal” some of the old 747 routes as fuel costs skyrocket, and overall economics (per seat-mile costs, etc.) improve with the twin-jet models. This forum is centered around the 748, which will be in direct competition w/ A380!! If the A380 bombs in its “real world” performance figures, this may help sell 748s, or it could actually scare some carriers away from quads altogether. If it succeeds, more carriers may purchase A380 for ultra-high density routes, which may lower expected sales for the 748. The good news for Boeing is that the 747 has a history of success for carriers, so most know basically what kind of performance to expect from it; it’s a “safe” purchase. The A380 is still a crap-shoot.
The 797 will not serve the same purpose as 787; all indications are that it will replace the 737.


#9

I’m not sold on the 748 either cargo or passenger, it is still basically the 744 airframe. The engines might be the new GE90/115 with more power, the raked-type wings of the 777, but it cannot overcome the fact that its airframe is not composite technology like the 787. Therefore, the 748 fuel efficiency may improve slightly over the 744, but will it improve over a 773 with nearly as much cargo space and tried and true fuel efficiency? Perhaps, but I doubt it.


#10

Why do you assume it is a competitor to the 773? It will be able to hold nearly 100 more people.


#11

Per Boeing, the 748 will have a fuel savings of 16% over the 744. Even if it’s closer to 10%, that’s not a “slight” improvement in my book when talking about such a large airframe. As far as the 773 comparison, well, never mind, Newark777 took care of that one.
I’m not trying to pick at you, highflier1, I swear. :wink:


#12

*Per Boeing, the 748 will have a fuel savings of 16% over the 744. Even if it’s closer to 10%, that’s not a “slight” improvement in my book… *

Airlines do a “happy dance” when they can save as little as 2% in their fuel usage. A 16% fuel savings should see them doing a “happy dance extravaganza.”


#13

Aviation Partners, Inc. is the primary supplier of blended winglets for after-market and new construction installation.

Their winglet equipped Boeing BBJ and 737-800 programs are showing a 5% to 7% reduction in fuel usage.

Small wonder so many manufacturers and owners are lining up to have this ~$.5M “accessory” installed.

Regards,

James


#14

Just a point of clarification, the engines will actually be a version of the new GEnx, not the GE90-115B. This will be similar to the GEnx version for the 787, but a little different. I don’t know the exact thrust but it will be less that the 787’s engines (far lower that the GE90-115B).


#15

I feel that along with the use as a more cargo focused pane that it will be more attractive to the passenger because of the new update. the 748 is a mordern plane that can start to intrest the younger generations and welcome more people to flying also. I also feel that the 747 line needed a new update and they just completed their goal and will be able to hopefully bring in more orders for the bigger and better plane.


#16

Since when has the average passenger noticed what they have been flying on? And why would they marvel at what is essentially just a bigger version of the 747 in their eyes? This is wishful thinking at the very best.


#17

I don’t think anyone other than enthusiasts are going to notice the extra 12-or-so ft. on the 748. Most of the increased capacity is by way of extra cargo volume. What is it, 34 extra seats or so? At 10-abreast, that’s not gonna be noticed by even seasoned 747 passengers.


#18

When one is involved in the financing and purchase of airline aircraft, one immediately finds out that the lofty numbers air manufacturers claim for the aircraft are not quite what they claim. When you then add on the slight margins the airlines operate under, their previous debt, their current aircraft in their own hangars, their mothballed aircraft sitting in the desert, maintenance, spare parts, techinical training, pension plans, labor contracts, many will have to go with the savings right now. The fuel savings that a 748 will have five to ten years from now may not warrant the cash outlay if the airline is fighting to survive. If you want to have a bigger plane for the sake of having a bigger plane, your business is not very sound. Fuel efficiency is extremely important, but it is only one of many factors when trying to figure out what is best for the airline. Thus, a 748 simply under these crushing financial real world facts is…yet to be determined. As once again it has to be pointed out that not a single aircraft has been flown. For example, one of the delays plaguing the A380 was the final wing test, which as I am told, failed at the 97% tolerance. Boeing has a lot in the pipeline, but neither the 787 or 748 have yet to fly. Most of the airlines ordering the 787 are European or Asian, whose A345 and A346 will probably be replaced when their new orders come on the market.


#19

Don’t tell Emirates that. :wink:

Actually, it’s not so simple. Remember the airlines in the US are the only ones having widespread problems fiscally. Many European and Asian carriers are doing quite well.


#20

When you fly on a plane, dont you ever think into went on when they were building it and how it got its famous name. People also do want to travel in something that at least has some updates. When Continental flys its 737 as a passenger plane from portland oregon to ewr, dont you think it was a little cramed. when you look at the new plans and options that boeing has more the devolopment for the new plane, you’ll see what i mean