Source: Reuters India
ANALYSIS-Southwest may pounce as oil wrecks airline plans
By Bill Rigby
Excerpts (emphasis mine)
NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) - As record oil prices force U.S. airlines to cut flights and slash payrolls, cash-rich and well-hedged Southwest Airlines Co … could pick up routes and expand its business as it has done in previous downturns.
The airline …, has $6 billion in the bank and $5 billion of fuel hedges on its books, a massive cushion that could help it swoop into markets that other airlines find unprofitable.
“Business cycle after business cycle, Southwest grows into the vacuum that’s created by network carrier retrenchment,” said Robert Mann, president of airline consultancy R.W. Mann & Co Inc. “That’s what they do.”
It already has a cost advantage over most rivals with its point-to-point route map, lack of expensive hubs to maintain, only one type of plane and a simple one-class fare structure.
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It would be no surprise if Southwest launched new services after the peak summer flying season, analysts said, when other airlines are planning to prune networks to save money.
“Southwest is far from done in terms of developing our route system,” Southwest Chief Executive Gary Kelly said at an airline investor conference this week. He did not rule out an acquisition or large expansion, but said “it better be right for us”, given the risks to the industry from high oil prices.
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Its market value stands around $10.4 billion, more than the rest of the top 10 U.S. airlines combined.
It has grown by entering markets where it thinks it can gain a foothold by forcing down fares, as it did at Chicago’s Midway airport, Baltimore-Washington, Philadelphia and Denver.
Since returning to Denver International Airport in 2006, Southwest has ramped up its services, hurting local low-cost rival Frontier Airlines … and … United Airlines. Since Frontier filed for bankruptcy protection in April, Southwest has announced more new flights from there.
“This is what they (Southwest) excel at,” said Betsy Snyder, an airline analyst at Standard & Poor’s. …
Next up could be flights to large airports in New York, Boston and Atlanta …
“These are places that historically they haven’t gone because they haven’t needed to,” Mann said. “But as the big guys retrench, there will be some room that frees up.”
Southwest had a code-share deal with ATA Airlines on flights to New York’s LaGuardia that lapsed when ATA went out of business in April, another victim of fuel prices. Southwest may be tempted to run its own service there at some point.
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Southwest’s fuel hedges are working well amid the oil crisis. It paid an average $2.01 per gallon of jet fuel in the first quarter, higher than a year ago, but well below the market average of $3.07.
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The hedges saved the company $291 million on fuel in the first quarter alone. It has hedges in place for the next few years, and though they are slowly losing potency, Kelly said they are worth $5 billion through 2012 at current oil prices.
From its position of strength, the carrier has launched an ad campaign poking fun at the new fees imposed by cash-strapped rivals, with the slogan “Fees don’t fly with us”.
Southwest, which has not introduced extra charges, reckons new baggage and booking fees, along with fuel surcharges, are jacking up the average domestic airfare by about 70 percent.
The carrier has not been immune to the crisis, scaling down fleet plans twice in the last nine months, cutting deliveries of Boeing … 737s. It will still make a net fleet expansion this year and next, but much less than originally planned.
Kelly admits the environment is “terrible,” and the airline is “trimming out” flights that are unlikely to make money. But overall, as it introduces flights on popular routes, he still expects to see a 4 percent increase in capacity this year. Most majors are planning double-digit capacity cuts this winter.
“Other airlines are shrinking, while we are continuing to grow, although very modestly,” Kelly said at the investor conference. “Southwest Airlines is very well prepared to weather this storm.”