FlightAware Discussions

BREAKING NEWS - Dash 8 Crash in Buffalo


#281

I would be monday morning quarterbacking to make any statements like that. However when I fly in icing conditons, like I’ve said before, I tend to do things a bit more intentional and I tend to keep an eye on things as they progress (ie flaps extending) and if I see something I dont like I undo it. I know I usually put the flaps down normally at 140, this was not max flap extension speed but it is comfortable. the Dash tends to balloon up when you extend flaps. I would have thought they would have extended the flaps a little sooner. I think we may find that the captain being new to this aircraft was still learning its quirks. think back to when you first got into the -6 twatter. However I have noticed in my 24 plus years of flying that a pilot who is new to a plane usually is more cautious.


#282

There’s a link in the 9th post on page 1 of this thread.


#283

i was very cautious, and proud of it – my boss in vt told me at the beginning that i flew like an old woman – then after my friend dave went off the end at colebrook in the 182 and andy trashed the mixmaster a few months later, he told me how glad he was that i was careful.

seriously, captain…

  1. let’s not evaluate or second guess – what does the manual give for recommended speed without flaps and gear? or if not that, what’s the clean stalling speed? * – i only want the facts sir, i make no judgement…

  2. to me, cautious in that situation means u add a few k when u have ice and are going to an 8000’ runway with a 10 k headwind.

sad thing is the cloud base and f/l were both at 2300 – if he could have gotten inside the marker on the glideslope for another 10 sec., he’d have had the field in sight and the ice coming off.

oh – cautious to me also means i’d have asked atc to vector me to get the localizer at trava – the fix before the om r/t at klump, the om

you see-- atc thought at the time that klump was vfr and ice free, so they were trying to do colgan a favor with the tight turn in – and it may have been 30 sec. before – but this is? – [let’s hear it class!]—BUFFALO!

THANKS

and actually, i’m more interested in your opinion re. the possible localizer problem – what do u think of that??

dt*


#284

definitely good idea to listen to it – make sure u listen to the entire half hour from 10 to 1031, not just the colgan parts

there’s a partial * written transcript down below the comment at our site [(http://www.airline-crash-analysis.com)]( – if u want to follow along while u listen)*


#285

For some reason I get that I dont have permission to go to that site and listen to that recording. However I did read your transcript and I don’t see anywhere that cactus was asking for hire due to icing. Also, when they are talking about 1/2 inche of ice, was this on the wings?


#286

For some reason I get that I dont have permission to go to that site and listen to that recording. However I did read your transcript and I don’t see anywhere that cactus was asking for hire due to icing. Also, when they are talking about 1/2 inche of ice, was this on the wings?


#287

Also, what was the last reported weather at KBUF at the time of the accident?


#288

liveatc.net/

top left is the link.


#289

remember i said our transcript is still in draft status – it is not complete or verified yet

so there’s no substitute for listeneing – transcript is only a guide and differs in places from the actual tape – in that case, rely on the tape

so…

current draft shows delta1998 reporting the half inch – but on the corrected version we’re doing now, i think it’s cactus – and he says first half inch, then says oh – quarter

cactus was descending for approach behind delta 1998

if u pm me your email or send it to my site, i’ll send you the mp3 or.wav file with the entire recording

go read my writeup – the explanation there is correct

don’t know the exact wx, but the radar at 10 pm shows broken snow showers all over the place coming in off the lake

delta 1998 reported being imc at the om at 2300, but being buffalo it can be cavu 5 mi away at the airport --you’ll hear it clearly on the tape

it’s clear to me by now that the icing was not the primary cause and not really worse than “normal” around here

based on your experience, i’d hope u agree that a little ice is no biggie, but sitting in it for an hour can be – add in a 14-16 hr duty day, 100 hr captain [and 100 hrs as capt after you have 1000 or more as f/o in type is fine – but he didn’t], and possibly a squirrly localizer, and no good plan B – and the stage is set…

here’s our draft [last part only – rest is on our site] – feel free to add to it / correct it, will you?? i need the help…

damn – just pasted it in but remembered this site won’t let u paste – but if u get me your email, i’ll email you what i have

best bet is go to our site and just read it or copy it


#290

Nope, it’s located at the far end. If it weren’t you would go BC before you even touched down!

I agree that ATC was just trying to determine if the localizer had in any way contributed to the loss of an aircraft. Can you even imagine what was going through the controllers mind at that point?


#291

ok – that’s great info – thanks

it also confirms my thought that the downed plane itself did not affect the localizer antenna

do u know my old friend jerry wenger from mn.?


#292

KBUF METAR: 0315Z ASOS 25014 3 -SN BR FEW011 OVC021 01/M01 A2980


#293

PIREPS KBUF for last 3 hours…note some rime in spots through the reports.

adds.aviationweather.gov/pireps/ … t=Get+text


#294

Thanks for the weather and the links. Again I am saying the chatter about the ILS being ok from tower and delta was to affirm that it was not affected by a crash or that it caused a crash. true it is at the opposite end of the airport but when a situation like this happens ATC will ask the next crew coming in if they are showing any flags as well as ATC will tell the crew they are showing all green.

Now about the ice, there are probes that are not heated on the Dash 8 100/200/300 windshield wipers. They stick out and let you see how much ice you are building. The ice will stick to these things all the way down to you get warmer air. So after you have deiced the airframe you will still have ice on anything that is not protected or heated. I have flown the dash 8 with a half inch of ice on this probe yet the protected areas were clean. I’m not sure about the airbus or delta flights but when they said they had that much ice, I can bet you it was what they had built up since they had entered icing conditions and not just what they had added at a certain altitude. please correct me if I’m wrong. So the question still remains, was the 1/2 inch of ice on the wings or where was it when cactus reported the ice report?


#295

KBUF METAR: 0315Z ASOS 25014 3 -SN BR FEW011 OVC021 01/M01 A2980

with this METAR, was KBUF VFR?


#296

i’m with you if delta had come back and said --naw – it’s fine – then they can put that to rest…

BUT DELTA DIDN’T! THEY SAID THERE’S A PLUS AND MINUS ONE DOT DEFLECTION AT 1500’

so that leaves 2 possibilities, neither good:

atc suspected or knew there was a localizer problem but hoped delta would say not –

or – atc was just checking

EITHER WAY THE NET IS THAT THERE WAS A PROBLEM –

how serious and whether it contributed is the question on my mind now…

and remember – where the ntsb is heading as of now is pilot error – but if the loc as a factor, it’s a whole different thing

imagine – you’re a bit slow, they’ve brought you in a bit close and tight [right at the om], you’re tired, [so] you’re using the a/p *, you have some ice, the windshield is covered, nite, still in the soup, some sever turbulence is forecast – maybe even hitting you…

you – or your f/o starts cranking down the gear and flaps –

now the loc goes ka-flooey – maybe while you’re distracted watching the flaps the way capt mel says he does

and

the a/p either clicks off and u grab the wheel to bring her around

or

the a/p starts to chase it and tightens the turn

we all know what comes next…

[and it sure didn’t have to be all of these possibilities – nor was it only one…]

[btw – listen to the f/o’s last transmission – sounds like she was already getting shaken around]*


#297

EITHER WAY THE NET IS THAT THERE WAS A PROBLEM –

how serious and whether it contributed is the question on my mind now…

and remember – where the ntsb is heading as of now is pilot error – but if the loc as a factor, it’s a whole different thing

imagine – you’re a bit slow, they’ve brought you in a bit close and tight [right at the om], you’re tired, [so] you’re using the a/p *, you have some ice, the windshield is covered, nite, still in the soup, some sever turbulence is forecast – maybe even hitting you…

you – or your f/o starts cranking down the gear and flaps –

now the loc goes ka-flooey – maybe while you’re distracted watching the flaps the way capt mel says he does

and

the a/p either clicks off and u grab the wheel to bring her around

or

the a/p starts to chase it and tightens the turn

we all know what comes next…

[and it sure didn’t have to be all of these possibilities – nor was it only one…]

[btw – listen to the f/o’s last transmission – sounds like she was already getting shaken around]
*

From reading this and your prior post you make alot of foolish assumptions DT. Your assumption that the ice was not a factor in this incident and that a LOC needle that another crew noticed a small deflection on their approach caused the accident.


#298

Don’t suppose we can throttle all the supposition back just a bit? Unless someone here is a closet member of the NTSB, there’s just a lot of “flinging stuff against the wall to see if it’ll stick” at this point. Getting worked up about possible localizer issues less that a week after the incident is a tad premature.


#299

again – what u say re atc and the loc is fine if delta says its fine

BUT THEY DIDN’T!

the cactus i report i assume means wing ice gotten descending between 6500 down to 3500

but i know, i know – i’m assuming – only cactus knows the fact re. that

though i insist – doesn’t really matter that much – we know there was ice – we know it was not all that bad – we know ice by itself would not have caused this tragedy


#300

I have never seen anyone read so much out of the ATC communications and findings. The plane that asked if he should clime was due to being at a minimum altitude and was probably concerned about MSA, whcih is 2700 and 3900. And he was being vectored through the LOC and being delayed. Now, for the one dot deflection, was there someone in the ILS critical area on the ground, ie snow plow, aircraft, ground vehicle. one dot deflection will not make a plane crash and I bet you money that it was very brief like a split second. Any pilot flying these days have seen that on an approach here and there. Also, was the delta the only one to see the deflection, was his equipment having a problem.

As for me watching the flaps as they extend, how long does that take? Any pilot with any amount of time will tell you they watch these things, it does not take but a second glance here and there and you feel it as well.

If i’m in an icing situation that dictates getting out of, I can declare an emergency and tell ATC what I’m going to do to get out of it. They cannot say other wise in an emergency. they will offer their help and that I have seen first hand during my flying career.

Now what I’m curious about is why can’t we wait till NTSB gives their final findings and then if we disaggree contact a lawyer.